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kazakhstan coal Kazakhstan Prepares to Grow Coal Production Emerging CIS nation uses coal to provide affordable power to its citizens while exporting coking coal to neighboring markets BY VLADISLAV VOROTNIKOV try's electricity being generated from renewable resources. This decision raises more questions than it answers. The coal industry could lose a significant part of its originally planned investment for coming years if the government follows the directive. Energy experts point out that Kazakhstan's long-term prospects are very much unclear. However, government officials claim that all investment projects in the area announced so far will not be canceled. Moreover, coal production could be transferred to the export market after 2020 if there is excess capacity. For Now, Coal Production & Consumption Will Only Grow A bucketwheel operation, the Bogatyr mine in Kazakhstan produces approximately 50 million mtpy. Kazakhstan has steadily increased coal production levels in recent years to satisfy growing demand. In terms of production, the country occupies eighth place. The mines currently produce a little more than 120 million metric tons per year (mtpy) of which 97 million mt are consumed domestically and 22 million mt are exported. Kazakhstan has 4% of known world reserves and these reserves are concentrated in 16 main deposits in three coal basins. Among the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Kazakhstan occupies third place in terms of largest reserves and first place in terms of coal production per capita. At present, the coal industry provides 78% of the electricity in the Republic of Kazakhstan, almost 100% of coke production and it fully meets the needs of the domestic sector (home heating). For the foreseeable future, the experts at the Republican Association of Mining and Metallurgical Enterprises predict that with the current level of development, 40 www.coalage.com coal will remain the fuel of choice for the electric power industry. According to the association, the volume of consumption from year-to-year will only rise. As a result, it is projected that coal consumption will grow to 121.3 million mtpy by 2020 and production will have to grow to more than 158 million mtpy to support this level of demand. Increasing production by 25% over the course of seven years is a tall order for the region. It is feared that development of the industry will probably not keep pace with future demand. Approved in 2008, the longterm program of coal industry development until 2020 has been canceled. By the beginning of 2014, Kazakhstan could adopt a new, more complex long-term strategy to grow future power generation levels that involves the use of renewable resources. Recently, mining and the use of coal has been identified as harmful to nature, so Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev has instructed the government to develop a plan through 2050 that would result in at least 50% of the coun- While researching the data for the 2008 program, the government estimated Kazakhstan's total bituminous coal reserves to be more than 15 billion mt. Balance reserves of the category A, B, C1 and C2 amounted to 33.6 billion mt, 21.3 billion mt were anthracite and 12.3 billion mt were brown coal (lignite). Off-balance sheet reserves of coal basins and deposits were estimated to be more than 28.6 billion mt, including 3.2 billion mt anthracite and 24.5 billion mt of brown coal. Most of the estimated reserves are anthracite reserves from Karaganda, Ekibastuz and Tengiz-Korzhankolskogo basins. The rest is brown coal, concentrated mainly in Maikuben basins. The truth is, by now the whole economy of Kazakhstan is highly dependent on coal mining. So, even with the new goals set by the president, the government could change these prospects somehow. At an extended board meeting in February, Minister of Industry and New Technologies Asset Issekeshev appealed to the government with a proposal to include a new plan of development for the coal industry as far as power generation. He believes coal will remain as the primary fuel source until 2030, at least. "It should be noted that today, the coal industry provides 74% of the production September 2013