Coal Age

DEC 2018

Coal Age Magazine - For more than 100 years, Coal Age has been the magazine that readers can trust for guidance and insight on this important industry.

Issue link:

Contents of this Issue


Page 31 of 59

30 December 2018 world coal markets World Coal Leaders Gather in Barcelona to Discuss Where the Market is Heading While coal demand continues to decrease in Europe, North America, opportunities exist in Asia, other emerging areas by jennifer jensen, associate editor More than 400 attendees from 42 differ- ent countries assembled at the World Coal Leaders Network conference in Barcelona in mid-October. A recurring topic discussed in the presentations held during the event was the impact of China's power sector on the rest of the world and the industry as a whole. "If power demand in China grows more than 3%, then coal demand increas- es," said International Energy Agency's senior coal analyst, Carlos Fernandez Al- varez, in his keynote presentation. To understand coal, one must un- derstand power and the impact China's growth has on the entire sector, he added. The shift of coal to Asia started in 2000 and Alvarez said it will continue for decades. In 2000, Asia consumed 50% of the total amount of coal, while North America and Europe consumed 25% each. Currently, Asia consumes 75% while North America and Europe consume 25% combined, he added. As of July, China saw a year-to-date (YTD) increase of 8.9% for electricity de- mand. YTD coal production stood at 1.98 billion metric tons (mt), a 2.7% year-on- year (YOY) increase. Guillaume Perret, director of Perret Associates, forecasts Chinese coal imports of 220.1 million mt for 2018, which would be a 25.4 million mt increase over 2017. Although production increased for 2017 and YTD in China, the levels are much lower than what was seen in 2015, said Vishal Thiruvedela, senior analyst, Cross Asset Research. The country is currently working on reducing its pollution and is on track to cut tons from outdated facili- ties by 2020, he added. While the amount of growth in production is decreasing, im- ports are continuing to grow at a steady rate. China saw a YOY increase in imports of 6.1% in 2017. As of August, that number has jumped to 14.7%, he added. When speaking of growth, one can- not ignore India. Thus far, India supply has been unable to keep up with demand. However, India coal production increased more than 3% YOY for 2017 and 8% YOY for January-August 2018, Thiruvedela said. India also saw an increase in imports because of the increase in demand, he added. India saw an increase from Janu- ary-August, but the increase of imports began to slow in September, he added. India isn't the only place seeing an in- crease in imports. For instance, an increase in demand will continue to be seen from the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Na- tions) region, specifically Pakistan, Alvarez China production increases 3.2% YOY for 2017 and 3.6% YOY for Jan-Aug 2018. (Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China) Demand continues to increase from Southeast Asia. (Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon & WBMS)

Articles in this issue

Links on this page

Archives of this issue

view archives of Coal Age - DEC 2018