Coal Age

JUL 2015

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This is a brief review of shipping issues of immediate interest. For example, there is a focus on the Panama Canal Authority's (ACP) definition of New Panamax. ACP does not use the terminology Post Panamax, but others do, so this article will attempt to clarify. It is defined as all ves- sels with dimensions greater than Panamax or Panamax Plus that comply with the size and draft limitations of the new locks, namely 366 m (1,200 ft 9 in.) in length by 49 m (160 ft 9 in.) in beam by 15.2 m (49 ft 10 in.). Tropical fresh water draft vessels are referred to as New Panamax vessels. Others may refer to Post-Panamax vessels, so the charter- er/terminal manager/agent must be very careful when vessel dimensions are an issue. Shanghai Harbor Issues such as pirate-proofing vessels, rogue waves and Plimsoll lines are all important, but cannot be covered in just one article. In fact, one might even argue why put any information in writing that pirates might read and use, so may not be covered much in future issues. Suffice it to say, however, piracy has advanced far beyond the purview of bands of rag-tag Somalis armed with grappling hooks and AK-47s. They may get to keep part of their booty, but the piracy operations are now controlled by European gangsters. Enough about that...back to Post- Panamax vessels. Post-Panamax Vessels On September 29, 2014, PCL took delivery of the Post Panamax bulk carrier Double Fortune built at Imabari Shipbuilding Co. Ltd. (Marugame Yard). This vessel is the first in a series of the IS-NEXTER design, which has been developed as the next- generation of Post-Panamax bulk carriers catering to the demanding needs of its clients in the steel and power sectors. The vessel has various advanced features, including a hybrid fin for enhanced fuel efficiency. The majority of the deck machinery is electrically driven to prevent oil pollution. This is the first of six sister vessels PCL will receive over the next few years. Its present fleet of Post-Panamax bulk carriers (including vessels on order) stands at 18. It should be clear from a comparison of the Double Fortune's dimensions that although it holds more cargo (95,790 met- ric tons) than the typical Panamax, this Post-Panamax vessel will hold much less than the physically larger New-Panamax vessels. Demolition Everyone learns about the law of supply and demand in school, but it seems no one pays any attention to it when it comes to making capex decisions. The same rule works in coal or shipping. There has been an overhang of coal production since the oil companies began opening mines in the Powder River Basin in the 1970s, but that hasn't stopped new investors from opening new mines. Oversupply of coal is just now being corrected as low prices are forcing some coal producers to go bankrupt. Look for coal prices to start creeping back up. The same dynamic is true in ocean shipping, where high charter rates in 2007-2008 stimulated ship owners to order far more dry bulk vessels than demand could ever support. The dry bulk market has long suffered from weak freight rates stemming from falling demand and an oversupply of ships, so the increased demolition of Capesizes in particular comes at a much needed time for the market. At first it sounds odd, but a reduction of vessels means more compe- tition for business, which means higher freight rates. BIMCO Chief Shipping Analyst Peter Sand said, "The high amount of Capesize demolition will benefit the segment. Although increasing scrapping was expected, the actual development exceed- ed BIMCOs expectations. This could have a positive impact on the market. "What choice did ship owners have? Sell vessels to competitors only to be out-bid when bidding on new freight business? It is the age-old dilemma of "selling rope to the hangman." The same thing happens in the barge and railroad industries. The Capesize dry bulk demolition market is off to its busiest start ever in 2015 amid some of the lowest dry bulk 20 www.coalage.com July 2015 t r a n s p o r t t i p s Shipping World Review B Y D A V E G A M B R E L

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