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Issue link: https://coal.epubxp.com/i/943908
January/February 2018 www.coalage.com 23 forecast 2018 continued If you need high open area to hit your production targets, we have more modular options than anyone else. Choose from polyurethane, rubber or our Metaldex TM welded wire product line. Combined with our industry-leading service, support and performance guarantee, that's why Polydeck is Your Trusted Screening Resource. Is Open Area the Key . . . . . . to Your Screening Performance? 1790 Dewberry Rd., Spartanburg, SC 29307 Phone: 1 (864) 579-4594 / Fax: 1 (864) 579-4173 www.polydeckscreen.com 70 OPTIONS > 45% OPEN AREA prior year to 54 days of maximum burn. Meanwhile, winter weather continues to reduce stockpile levels across the U.S. to lows not seen for three or four years. Look- ing ahead to 2018, however, Peabody En- ergy projects plant retirements to reduce baseload coal demand by approximately 25 to 35 million tons. Citing similar stats about PRB stocks, Cloud Peak Energy said customers remain uncertain about forecast weather and nat- ural gas prices and many utilities appear to be continuing to delay purchasing coal to have flexibility to switch between coal and gas electricity generation based on near-term pricing. In the East, CONSOL Energy has capi- talized on the uptick in demand and pric- ing for NAPP coal in 2017. "We are now greater than 95% contracted for 2018, 70% contracted for 2019, and 24% contracted for 2020, assuming an annual produc- tion rate of approximately 27 million tons going forward," said Jimmy Brock, CEO CONSOL Energy. CONSOL Energy is in an ideal position to take advantage of the recent rebound in thermal export markets and the international demand for cross- over metallurgical coal. Warrior Met Coal, America's premier publicly traded "pure-play" met coal pro- ducer, also noted the market volatility for high-quality premium met coal, reflect- ing higher Chinese demand and ongoing disruptions to supply from U.S. and Aus- tralian miners. Warrior said it has capital- ized on the strong pricing environment by selling down higher than normal in- ventory levels. Alliance Resource Partners, one of the leading coal producers in the Mid- west said they are entering 2018 poised for continued strong operating performance. "We expect improved demand from our domestic customers in the first half of 2018 as recent cold weather across much of the U.S. has resulted in increased coal burn and reduced utility stockpiles," said Joe Craft, president and CEO, Alliance Re- source Partners. Echoing what Brock said about international thermal and met- allurgical coal markets, he said exports continue to support participation by U.S. producers. Anticipating increased export sales in 2018, Alliance said it has already booked commitments to export approximately 5.9 million tons this year. As a result, Alliance is planning to increase production and sales volumes by 5% to 6% in 2018, which along with continued strong cost per- formance by its mines and an improving price environment, they are expecting to drive solid results from its coal operations. They currently have price and volume commitments for approximately 85% of their 2018 production. The message from this group of coal industry leaders is that domestic demand could go either way, depending on stocks and the price of natural gas. They are see- ing strength in the export markets, which helps with pricing and volume. Noting these market influences, 2018 is shaping up to be an interesting year.