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8 www.coalage.com March 2018 news continued d a t e l i n e w a s h i n g t o n Thanks to market competition from shale gas, regu- latory hurdles and relentless attacks from activists, the U.S. coal fleet declined from 317 gigawatts (GW) in 2010 to 260 GW last month. The current coal fleet looks like the French fleet after Trafalgar. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects the coal fleet will sink to 190 GW in 10 years. Still, many dismiss concerns that we're sailing into dangerous waters. The Department of Energy's (DOE) staff report last year concluded that the SS Grid was seaworthy. Closer inspections of the hull were needed. But even as the vessel was battered by frigid storms this winter and took on water, it nevertheless made landfall. And the Fed- eral Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) last month unanimously con- cluded that no drydock repairs —like DOE Secretary Rick Perry's proposal to value coal plant reliability — were needed to retain coal power plants. In short, say Washington's deep thinkers, we passengers can rest assured that we'll sail with confidence. Then why is this boat continuing to spring leaks? This winter, con- cerns over grid reliability were being validated from coast to coast. The problems vary but appear with disturbing regularity. The nor'easters blasting New England and New York this winter fortified warnings from the region's regulators that rolling blackouts may soon be needed. On February 27, the top official for ISO-New England said that coal-fired plants were critical to keeping the grid operating during New England's serial cold snaps. New Hampshire has blocked the 190-mile Northern Pass natural gas pipeline, and renewable fuel supply stalled after Cape Wind failed to win public backing. Regional power costs are already 56% above the U.S. average and heading higher. And without more infrastructure, says the ISO, keeping the lights on in New England will become an even more ten- uous proposition. Is it merely coincidental that the only states generating no power from coal are Rhode Island and Vermont? Activists, meanwhile, steer the region's grid to shipwreck by noisily defending lengthy and costly permit reviews that developers complain are slowing pipeline infrastructure. "It's not that you can't get something built," the Northeast Clean Energy Council told The Wall Street Journal. "It's that you have to get the process right." Translation: "It's not the assault rifle, it's the people who misuse it." On the other coast, organized resistance to nuclear power mothballed California's Diablo Canyon, creating a 2,200-megawatt (MW) power gap that renewables can't fill. One reason: utility scale solar power is not being built fast enough, creating a market that even renewable advocates warn is "rife with uncertainty." Something about "uncertainty" sounds like "unreliability." Permit sclerosis has been partly responsible for blocking the 600-mile natural gas Atlantic Coast pipeline. The resulting delays have added up to $1 billion in costs, an increase of at least 20%, said Duke Energy CEO Lynn Good. The company insists additional natural gas is necessary after an arctic winter sent hospital, home and industrial demand and prices soaring. Last month, New Jersey's attorney general blocked the Penn-East pipeline that would cross state property. Why? Because fugitive methane molecules trumped concerns over regional power supply. No wonder state capitalism is giving democratic capitalism stiff competition. In Texas, the public utility commission noted coal retirements have dented "excess" power supply, squeezing the reserve margin in the state grid. ERCOT, the independent overseer, said the grid is fine for now, but coal retirements together with peak demand this summer may require "demand reduction." There's a euphemism Texans won't like. Meanwhile in the PJM, market reforms that have long been in the works are drawing fire from critics who see a nefarious plot to subsidize coal plants. PJM CEO Andy Ott told Utility Dive his reform proposals are not a stealth bailout, and reminded critics that the FERC asked for reli- ability improvements if they're needed. "Well obviously we're going to say yeah, duh," said Ott. Whatever the demonstrated need, rest assured guns will be drawn for any suggestions that market price reforms should help to keep coal plants generating juice. Last month, FERC Chairman Kevin McIntyre said if he learns that coal power plants are not being compensated for resil- iency attributes, "that is automatically of concern." Passengers on the SS Grid hope so, too. Luke Popovich is a spokesman for the National Mining Association, the industry's trade group based in Washington, D.C. Storm Warnings for the SS Grid by luke popovich "The current coal f leet looks like the French f leet after Trafalgar."