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coaltrans 2012 continued 80% of their electricity needs will be satisfied using coal. India will lead this growth. "In a world full of uncertainty, one thing is sure: rising incomes and population will push energy needs higher," said Dr. Birol, summarizing the creed that was then expounded by each speaker. There was also, ironically, a bit of hope in the heart of Europe for coal exporters. Despite the persecution coal seems to attract in that area, European Union coal demand rose by 7% in 2011, benefitting from cheap U.S. imports. Erich Schmitz, managing director at Verein der Kohlenimporteure, gave a speech focus- ing on Germany, which has recently passed legislation that will close all nuclear power plants and hard coal mines in that coun- try. While these energy sources are supposed to be replaced with renewable ones, the required infrastructure is far from complete. This, combined with high gas prices, favors imports of hard coal to meet the gap in demand. Similarly in the U.K., coal is currently more economical than gas and as a result is seeing increasing imports. It is generally expected that this trend will not continue into the long term as infrastructure developments catch up with regulations and legislation. Growing U.S. Exports Matt Schicke, managing director of Americas Coal Trading and Mercuria Energy trading, discussed how U.S. coal is shifting the dynamics of international trade. Over the past decade, both met and steam coal exports from the United States have been increasing at a steady rate, though steam is growing faster. As shale gas replaces coal in U.S. power generation, U.S. producers are actively pushing exports. Coal is becoming uncompetitive at home where Schicke believes that coal will be replaced as a base load and instead transition to peaking. Increased regulations in the U.S. have forced the retirement of many coal plants and old- er plants to not warrant the CAPEX required to meet environ- mental regulations and competition from gas. Exports are primarily aimed at Asia and the U.S. benefits from an installed export infrastructure as well as a variety of coal qualities for blending. He expects the U.S. to play a key role balancing the global market. The U.S. will shift from being a swing supplier on international markets to being one of the key suppliers to the global seaborne trade. U.S. exports have doubled over the past six years and Deck Slone, senior vice president, strategy and public policy at Arch Coal, expects exports to more than double again over the next five years. "The U.S. will be one of the main suppliers of coal to the Atlantic basin and beyond because the coal is still there and other suppliers are facing major difficulties," said Slone. Slone pointed out that currently global macro uncertainty is affecting both thermal and met demand. Utilization rates at global steel mills stands at 76%—well off peak levels, and ther- mal and met coal prices have slid to unsustainable levels. As U.S. utilities switch from coal to gas, more tonnage becomes available for export, which is exacerbated by volumes of Colombian coal that had been previously intended for the U.S. market. However, he pointed out that world steel consumption is expected to climb by 40% by 2020 and the rapid build-out of 44 www.coalage.com the world's coal-based power plants shows no sign of abating. Slone reckons that eventually demand will outstrip supply. Once again his analysis relies almost completely on rising demand in India and China, both of which have seen imports of both met and thermal coal rise over the past few years. China has changed from being a net exporter in 2006 to an importer of 174 million mtpy of met and thermal coal in 2011. India, howev- er, is expected to become the largest net importer of coking coal, despite increases in domestic production and imported coal requirements will grow rapidly until at least 2017 because of the high ash levels (20%) of domestically mined coking coal. According to the chairman of the Steel Authority of India, CS Verma: "India has a 32 billion mt coal resource that is 13% of the global resource, but hard coking coal makes up only 16% of this total resource in India." India's coking coal extraction capability is limited because the resource is often located under heavily populated areas that make access to it impossible and 20% of the resource is found at depths of more than 600 m. Steel production in India meanwhile has rocketed from 22 million mtpy in 2002 to 72 million mtpy in 2011 and is forecast to reach 150 million mtpy by 2017. This brings opportunities for U.S. exporters. Australia will experience higher costs in new reserve areas due to government regulations and community impediments. Indonesian coal quality is declining while its domestic consumption increases and is facing major infrastructure bottlenecks which also affect Mongolia and Mozambique. Slone concludes that global seaborne demand will outpace supply in the next five years and predicts a cumulative net shortfall of 85 million mt for met coal and a 110 million mt deficit for thermal. The U.S. will be a bene- ficiary of this trend and its export capacity he expects to reach 245 million mt within five years. U.S. port expansions will more than double capacity during this time, particularly on the pacif- ic coast. Turkey The host nation was also under discussion. Turkey's GDP has been growing at an average of 5% per year for the past 10 years and the country has big potential for electricity consumption growth. While electricity consumption per capita is 3 MWh in Turkey, the EU average is 6.6 MWh. The additional installed capacity requirement is 4,000 mw per year and due to limited local sources, imported coal and gas will be required. Currently, local lignite accounts for 17% of Turkey's electricity generation, while imported coal accounts for 10% (imported natural gas and hydro make up the most important elements). Turkey imports 30 million mt of solid fuel, but this number will increase. Average annual additional investment in imported coal fired power production is expected to be 75 mw which will result in an annual increase in import coal requirements of more than 2 million mtpy. Current investments aim at increasing Turkey's steel pro- duction to 55 million mt by 2015, which would make Turkey Europe's largest producer. The most serious bottleneck to this November 2012